We have two exciting match-ups on Sunday for the NFL Conference Championships this season although I’m a bit surprised that the Broncos lost to the Ravens.
Last week my picks went 2-2, as I ended up losing by a ½ pt on the Falcons spread after they blew their lead against the Seahawks in the 4th quarter.
My Best Bets for the Conference Championship Games
I think the 49ers are going to win the game and cover the -4 pt spread when it’s all said and done on Sunday. However, I think the 1st quarter prop has good value on the Falcons, as they often come out strong at home. Last week the Falcons were up 10-0 against the Seahawks after the 1st quarter while the 49ers had a slow start at home and were down 14-7 after the 1st quarter against GB.
Atlanta knows they need to try and come out early and pound the 49ers into a hole or else they stand no chance. San Fran has been a slow starter most of the season, as they’ve averaged just 3.8 points in the 1st quarter this year, which ranks them 21st in the NFL. I expect Matt Ryan to be confident now that he has the playoff monkey off his back and a 7-3 or 10-3 score after the 1Q is likely.
After all four games went over the total last weekend most bettors are hammering the overs this week. The San Fran and Atlanta total has gone up a point already due to public action and I think the under has value at 49 points, which you can bet at BOL. This season the Falcons at home played to the under 7 times in 9 games. With SF coming to town I expect a low scoring slugfest.
Last week the Falcons allowed 28 pts against Seattle and the 49ers allowed 31 pts against Green Bay. However, when you look at the season these two defenses have had you can see why I’m betting the under. The Falcons and 49ers both ranked in the T5 this year in points allowed. There was a lot of wide open play last weekend, but don’t expect that from these two teams.
Another bet that I like in the props section at 5Dimes this weekend is the Patriots team total going O30 points. Last week the Pats dominated the Texans at home and they ended up scoring 41 pts against a tough defense. Baltimore’s defense is a lot tougher now that they’re healthy, but they still allowed the Broncos to score 35 pts last weekend including 2 special team TD’s.
With the way Tom Brady is playing right now I think the Patriots will easily exceed the 30 pt total. Gronks is out, but Hernandez is a great TE as well and the Pats still have excellent depth at WR with Welker and Lloyd. Baltimore’s secondary is still questionable and unless they get a lot of pressure on Brady he’ll pick them apart. It’s hard to say if NE will cover, but they should put up points.
After last weekend the two best teams are definitely the Patriots and 49ers with the way these two teams are playing. 5Dimes has a few exact result props for the Superbowl right now and getting +215 on NE to beat SF is good value. The Patriots should against the Ravens at home this week and while the NFC Conference Championship is tougher I expect the 49ers to prevail.
Put it this way, if NE makes it to the Superbowl they’ll be favoured against SF and ATL. Atlanta looked good early last week, but the team made numerous mistakes including Ryan who turned the football over twice. San Fran is the class of the NFC, but if they end up playing NE in the Superbowl the Patriots should win because I don’t think any defense can stop that offense right now.
Betting on the NFL Conference Championship Games
If you live in the USA I recommend betting with 5Dimes or BetOnline above. If you live outside of the USA I recently read a great website that has detailed mobile sportsbook reviews. I know many of my readers wanted to learn more about mobile betting apps, so take a few minutes to visit OddsWinner.com and read through the mobile betting app reviews to find out where to bet this week.